A hurricane, soon to be named Helene, is expected to form and rapidly intensify this week in the Gulf of Mexico before striking Florida on Thursday or early Friday. Over the weekend, the risk of a major hurricane landfall in the state increased, with the highest likelihood of direct impacts currently targeting Florida’s Big Bend and Panhandle regions.
The system is currently located east of the Yucatán Peninsula in the northwestern Caribbean, moving over extremely warm waters. It is forecasted to become a named storm by Tuesday afternoon and enter the Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday.
In addition to residents in the Big Bend and Panhandle areas, those from Fort Myers, Florida, to Gulfport and Biloxi, Mississippi, should remain on high alert. There is also a chance the storm could shift east of current model predictions, potentially bringing severe winds and storm surge to Tampa.
The National Hurricane Center warns of an "increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds" along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including Florida’s Panhandle and west coast.
Hurricane watches are expected to be posted along the Gulf Coast by late Monday or early Tuesday, with warnings issued by early Wednesday. Evacuations will likely begin early Wednesday, marking the final 36 to 48 hours before landfall.
Helene will be the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the fourth to make landfall in the U.S. Previous storms this season include Hurricane Beryl, which hit south of Houston as a high-end Category 1 on July 8, and Hurricane Debby, which struck Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 1 in early August. Category 2 Francine made landfall southeast of New Orleans on September 12.
Unless there are significant shifts in forecasts, Helene could become the strongest storm to hit the U.S. in the 2024 season.
Where is the system currently located, and when is it expected to be classified as a named storm?
As of late Monday morning, the cluster of thunderstorms that is set to become Helene was located 350 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Situated over the northwestern Caribbean, it is generating significant rainfall and thunderstorm activity. With peak winds of 30 mph, the system is moving nearly due north at 6 mph.
Signs indicate that the system is starting to form a low-level center, a crucial step toward becoming named. However, it seems the low-level center and mid-level circulation have yet to connect. Once they do, we can expect more rapid strengthening and the formation of an inner core.
The storm is likely to be officially named Helene late Monday or, more probably, early Tuesday.
Where is this storm likely headed, and when is it expected to make landfall?
Expecting roadman of Hurricane Helenaa
Helene is expected to either pass through the Yucatán Channel—between Cancún and western Cuba—or move over western Cuba. If it remains over the open ocean, it will have a slight advantage in intensifying. However, brief land interaction with western Cuba could temporarily slow its development. Despite that, as seen with Hurricane Ian in 2022, major storms can still rapidly strengthen after crossing Cuba.
Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Helene will have about 48 hours to intensify, aided by warm sea surface temperatures and calm upper-level winds. An approaching upper-level low pressure system will pull the storm northward, helping to vent the storm by allowing air to flow away from its center, which could lead to rapid intensification.
According to the National Hurricane Center, conditions are highly favorable for significant strengthening. One of their statistical models predicts a 95% chance that the storm's winds will increase by at least 75 mph over the next 72 hours.
Currently, landfall is expected late Thursday, with the highest risk in Florida's Big Bend area. However, there's a possibility the storm could shift eastward, bringing Tampa into greater risk. The most likely area for landfall is between Apalachicola and Cedar Key, Florida.
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